Six Nations 2019 Preview and Ongoing Predictor

Who Will Be Crowed Champions in 2019?

On Friday 1st February 2019, France host Wales in the first game of the 2019 Six Nations.  The Stade de France stadium in Paris will be buzzing in anticipation.  But who will be holding the trophy at 7pm on the 16th March?  We look at each team’s form since the start of 2018 to give our prediction of the standings at the end of the tournament.  We also update the chart after each set of games to see how those positions change.

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England

Since the start of 2018, England’s results have been mixed and they have lost more than they have won.  Their try scoring record in the same period is great, scoring 4 or more tries on 5 occasions.  And they are on a two-game winning run after the Autumn series and were unlucky to lose against the All Blacks.  Could Eddie Jones surprise the critics and spearhead another England revival?

Statistics after round one

Won: 7

Lost: 7

Position on form at the start of the tournament: 4th

Position after one game:  4th

France

Everyone continues to wonder what has happened to France.  Their record since the start of 2018 is dismal with three victories against Argentina, Italy and England.  In that period they have failed to score 4 or more tries, a statistic that will make the blood run cold for most French supporters.  Can they turn the tide?

Statistics after round one

Won: 3

Lost: 9

Position on form at the start of the tournament: 5th

Position after one game:  5th

Ireland

Arguably and statistically the best team in the world at present.  Defeating the All Blacks for a second time in the summer and only losing one test match (against Australia in the summer test) since the start of 2018.  They match England with the number of games where they have scored more than 4 tries with 5.  At present, they are an awesome machine.  Who will have the guile to stop them?

Statistics after round one

Won:  11

Lost:  2

Position on form at the start of the tournament: 1st

Position after one game:  1st

Italy

A few years ago there were signs of improvement for the Italians, but this was been swept away as others have adapted their game.  Their only wins since January 2018 have come against Fiji and Japan and, like France, they have failed to score 4 tries or more.  But can the old dog Parisse rally his troops to cause an upset in 2019?

Statistics after round one

Won:  2

Lost:  10

Position on form at the start of the tournament: 6th

Position after one game:  6th

Scotland

When compared with England and France, Scotland’s statistics are fantastic.  Having only lost four games since the beginning of 2018, with two of them against Wales, the Scots are right to feel confident.  Also, they have the 2nd best record for scoring 4 tries or more, having achieved this in 4 test matches.  If they play to their potential, they could surprise everyone.

Statistics after round one

Won:  8

Lost:  4

Position on form at the start of the tournament: 3rd

Position after one game:  3rd

Wales

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As I am Welsh I must curb my optimism and consider this objectively.  Wales will win the Six Nations!  Hang on, let’s consider the stats.  They are on a nine game winning run that started after successive defeats against England and Ireland in the 2018 Six Nations.  They are scoring tries, with 4 or more scored in 3 tests since January 2018.  But do they have enough strength in depth?  Can they maintain that form?

Statistics after round one

Won:  12

Lost:  2

Position on form at the start of the tournament: 2nd

Position after one game:  2nd

The ‘Position on Form’ Table

We assessed each test match played since the beginning of 2018 and awarded 4 points for a win and 1 point for each game where the side scored four tries or more.  We then divided the total points by the games played to give us a points per game ratio.  Here are the standings

Team Win Loss Games Points (4 pts for a win) Bonus Points Total Points Divided By Games
Ireland 11 1 12 44 5 49 4.1
Wales 10 2 13 44 3 47 3.6
Scotland 7 4 11 28 4 32 2.9
England 6 7 13 24 5 29 2.2
France 3 8 11 12 0 12 1.1
Italy 2 9 11 8 0 8 0.7

Statistical Update After Round One

What a fantastic start to the 2019 Six Nations.  France conspired to lose against Wales on Friday night, despite an emphatic opening 40 minutes.  Scotland flattered to deceive against Italy.  And England shocked the rugby fraternity by thoroughly beating Ireland in Dublin.

So, we’ve updated our predictor and the new table is shown below.  Despite the defeat, our statistics say that Ireland will win the 2019 Six Nations simply due to the number of times they have scored 4 tries or more.  But Wales are closing the gap fast!

Team Win Loss Games Points (4 pts for a win) Bonus Points Total Points Divided By Games
Ireland 11 2 13 44 5 49 3.8
Wales 11 2 14 48 3 51 3.6
Scotland 8 4 12 32 5 37 3.1
England 7 7 14 28 6 34 2.4
France 3 9 12 12 0 12 1.0
Italy 2 10 12 8 0 8 0.7

Statistical Update After Round Two

An interesting round two.  Wales struggled to overcome a dogged Italy and missed out on a bonus point.  Ireland returned to winning ways by beating Scotland.  But it is England, who absolutely demolished France, who have emerged as the deserved favourites for the 2019 Six Nations.

But our statistical predictor tells a different story.  Based upon the performances of all the Six Nations sides since the beginning of 2018, Ireland will win the Six Nations, albeit just from Wales and due to securing more bonus point wins.  England stay at 4th, a fair reflection of their year, but not of the last two matches.  England also has the highest number of bonus points having exceeded scoring 4 tries in 7 of their last 15 tests.  That is some record.  Roll on round 3!

Team Win Loss Games Points (4 pts for a win) Bonus Points Total Points Divided By Games
Ireland 12 2 14 48 5 53 3.8
Wales 12 2 15 52 3 55 3.7
Scotland 8 5 13 32 5 37 2.8
England 8 7 15 32 7 39 2.6
France 3 10 13 12 0 12 0.9
Italy 2 11 13 8 0 8 0.6

Statistical Update After Round Three

A huge result for Wales beating England 21-13 and leaping up to 3rd in the world rankings.  Ireland flattered to deceive in Italy, but still managed to not only win but secure a bonus point in a 26-16 victory.  In Paris, the flair of France returned as they danced around the Scots to comfortably win 27-10.

Despite the Wales results, our statistics table still shows Ireland victorious.  Wales inability to secure bonus points is the only difference between the sides.  Also, England’s 8th defeat in 16 games keeps them below Scotland.

Team Win Loss Games Points (4 pts for a win) Bonus Points Total Points Divided By Games
Ireland 13 2 15 52 6 58 3.9
Wales 13 2 16 56 3 59 3.7
Scotland 8 6 14 32 5 37 2.6
England 8 8 16 32 7 39 2.4
France 4 10 14 16 0 16 1.1
Italy 2 12 14 8 0 8 0.6

Statistical Update After Round Four

Wales stutter to a 4th Six Nations victory against Scotland, setting up a Grand Slam finale in Cardiff.  The only team standing in their way is Ireland, who demolished France.  However, England wait in the shadows after trouncing Italy.

Our statistics table, calculated using the performances of all sides since January 2018, still shows Ireland winning the 2019 Six Nations.  England move up into 3rd.  But what will happen on Saturday?

Team Win Loss Games Points (4 pts for a win) Bonus Points Total Points Divided By Games
Ireland 14 2 16 56 7 63 3.9
Wales 14 2 17 60 3 63 3.7
England 9 8 17 36 7 43 2.5
Scotland 8 7 15 32 5 37 2.5
France 4 11 15 16 0 16 1.1
Italy 2 13 15 8 0 8 0.5

Statistical Update After Final Round Five

Our final table tells the story of the tournament.  Since January 2018, Wales has lost only two games; against England and Ireland in the 2018 Six Nations.  Since their last defeat against Ireland on 24th February 2018, the side has won 14 consecutive games.  A record for any Welsh side.  Wales top the table on the basis of games won, with Ireland snapping at their heels with a better bonus point record.  England edge Scotland in 3rd place.

Team Win Loss Draws Games Points (4 pts for a win 2pts draw) Bonus Points Total Points Divided By Games
Wales 15 2 0 17 60 3 63 3.71
Ireland 14 3 0 17 56 7 63 3.71
England 9 8 1 17 38 8 46 2.71
Scotland 8 7 1 15 34 6 40 2.67
France 5 11 0 16 20 0 20 1.25
Italy 2 13 0 15 8 0 8 0.53

Hospitality Packages

There are packages for the forthcoming Six Nations England and Ireland games which include a superb 3-course lunch, a guest rugby personality to talk about life in the game, and a big screen to watch the game.  Further details can be found on ‘Rugby Hospitality During Six Nations 2019‘ but availability is limited.

For more information about having Rugby Legend speak at your rugby or golf club, or pre-match rugby hospitality for the Six Nations Internationals please do not hesitate to contact Paul Fielding on:

Phone:  01656 782545 or 07768 418308

By email on: legends@hospitalityandleisure.co.uk

Or via our website

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